‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply isn't available," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the south. People are turning to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In a financial hub, accounts say up to a significant portion of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have depleted with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the authorities insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and authorities say supplies are being prioritized to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now largely blocked by the war.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been caused by rumors. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.