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For a brief period, Trump seemed to take a resolute position regarding Ukraine. Following issuing warnings of "significant consequences" in August should Putin carried on blocking ceasefire discussions, the former president ultimately introduced major sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously hindered the Russian leader's ability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, through his latest 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly created by US and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU involvement, he has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Invasion

This initiative would in practice favor the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite bold proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative actually weaken that very independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his corporate past, Trump continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, implying giving Putin a section of Ukraine's land will satisfy the president. However, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged swath of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear intention to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that his growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in position the presently divided regions of these areas, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been failed to occupy in over a decade of fighting, this concession would make Ukrainian military defenses critically weakened.

The area is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a critical barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, providing Putin a clear route to the capital if he eventually decide to restart the war.

Defense Limitations

Then, in a move that would make future fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's proposal sets no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's legitimate government as Nazis, Trump's plan states: "All extremist doctrine and actions must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. However, Trump sets no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan has the Russian Federation promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached similar treaties in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of captured land in the region to the government – why should anyone believe Russia now?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on western protection assurances. Although the plan threatens a "immediate unified armed reaction" if Russia renew its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics include fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from stationing troops on the nation's land, thus preventing the reassurance force, presumptively headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Russia from rebuilding his diminished forces, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Concern

Another parallel deal according to sources would provide the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. But in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of alliance members, such as the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not